Jupiter’s brand has always appeared larger than its assets under management – currently £55bn.

This was partly down to the rumbustious personality and bold marketing of its founder John Duffield but also the canny nature of his successor, Edward Bonham Carter, who has always enjoyed a good relationship with the media, even when things were going wrong.

It has had a succession of CEOs in the past decade and has generated considerable rewards for its executives over the years.

But the shareholders who stayed aboard since its flotation in 2010 have not reaped the benefits they would have hoped for.

Last week’s announcement that Andrew Formica would be replaced by his colleague Matthew Beesley (pictured main) may only be the prelude to an ultimate takeover of the group by an overseas company looking for a foothold – or a bigger foothold – in Europe.

How did we get here?

Consider the history of Jupiter. Duffield put the business on the map with some great fund manager hires and sold it successfully in two stages to Commerzbank. There was a falling out, including litigation; Duffield went off to found New Star and Bonham Carter was catapulted into the CEO role while running money himself.

Bonham Carter steadied the ship after departures to New Star, hiring the fund-of-funds team from Lazard, led by John Chatfeild-Roberts, which eventually went on to raise billions for the group. That was a typical Bonham Carter deal – cheap but successful. He was not a big spender. Others, such as Ariel Bezalel, were promoted from the back office. Bezalel became a star bond manager, again raising billions. This, at least, was a departure from the pure equity-driven culture of the firm.

^{Edward Bonham Carter’s time at Jupiter was characterised by cheap but effective deals and a business that became somewhat rough around the edges}

Bonham Carter earned the admiration of colleagues for the way he arranged the buyout of the group, financed by TA Associates, getting a great deal for the executives and fund managers. But he was still not a big spender, which showed in Jupiter’s shabby offices on Hyde Park Corner and in a lack of investment in a robust overseas distribution network. As a result, its margins were astronomical but distribution was very UK-oriented.

Bonham Carter stepped aside as CEO to be replaced by former BlackRock executive Maarten Slendebroek, a man who did have incredible international distribution know-how. He built the pipes for that distribution but lacked the investment expertise to build a following from the fund managers at Jupiter.

Formica came in as a fairly young man who had made some successful acquisitions while at Henderson, notably Gartmore and New Star. The less said about the merger with Janus, the better. But the timing of the subsequent Merian acquisition – really a rescue deal – was not good, and the share price has languished, with three years of net redemptions.

^{Andrew Formica’s time at Jupiter coincided with three years of net redemptions}

The task ahead

So, what happens next? Silchester is the biggest shareholder with an 18% stake and is known to be a patient investor. It has held Jupiter for a long time already – the 2014 annual report showed a 3.28% stake. It waited a long time for its stake in Brewin Dolphin to be handsomely rewarded via the recent takeover by RBC.

In the meantime, it can be comforted by the staggering 11% yield on the shares. But it cannot have been happy by the 42% fall in the Jupiter share price since the start of the year, which makes it among the worst performers of quoted asset management groups.

TA Associates, another large shareholder, also has a reputation for patience but it has already taken a significant loss on Merian, financing the management buyout, before Jupiter bought the firm for much less. Both these major shareholders will want to see a big share price increase but their style is not to publicly agitate for change.

Beesley is planning to bring in people from outside the business to enhance the team. Previously, he had an unhappily brief period at Artemis, which he joined from crisis-hit GAM but before that had decent stints at Henderson, JP Morgan and Mercury. So, he can bring big company experience, a modern approach to asset management that will include data science, and is a likeable, unshowy personality whom the fund managers at Jupiter can respect.

With the share price so low, Jupiter will not be making any significant acquisitions, which means it has to generate organic growth. It has to stem the redemptions, diversify the product range and have durable international distribution. Ironically, the low share price means Beesley could lure people to join Jupiter with share options fixed at a cheap exercise price.

The bet is that with good hires and organic growth, either the share price recovers or someone comes in and buys the company for a healthy premium. Or both. Volatile markets will not help, but with the right team behind him and Jupiter’s decent brand, Beesley has a fair chance of making it happen.